ARC Raiders matchmaking is more complicated than simply putting friendly players with friendly players and aggressive players with aggressive players.
Embark Studios has now explained considerably more about how the system works, including how player behaviour affects future lobbies and how the game distinguishes between starting a fight and defending yourself.
And some of the common explanations of ARC Raiders matchmaking are simply wrong.
Here's what the developers have actually confirmed.
Does ARC Raiders really have aggression-based matchmaking?
Yes — but calling it simply "aggression matchmaking" doesn't tell the whole story.
Embark says player behaviour influences the kinds of Raiders they are more likely to encounter.
However, it is not a system with two fixed groups.
There aren't simply:
Friendly lobbies.
Aggressive lobbies.
Instead, Embark describes it as a scale.
Players are more likely to encounter Raiders whose past playstyle is similar to their own, but there is no guarantee.
That distinction matters.
You can still encounter an aggressive player even if you've generally played peacefully.
Likewise, a player who normally engages in PvP can encounter someone who wants to cooperate.
The uncertainty is intentional.
Your behaviour can influence future lobbies
Embark says your behaviour gradually influences the types of players you're likely to encounter.
The important word is "gradually."
One encounter doesn't instantly throw you into a special PvP lobby.
Embark explicitly says that a single shot or kill does not immediately put a player into "PvP-focused" lobbies.
Instead, your behaviour contributes to your longer-term playstyle estimate.
If your behaviour changes, the types of players you're likely to encounter can gradually change as well.
Starting a fight is different from defending yourself
This is one of the biggest matchmaking changes.
Embark previously found that its system wasn't adequately distinguishing between a player who started a PvP encounter and someone who was simply defending themselves.
That meant cautious Raiders could potentially be classified as more PvP-focused than their actual behaviour suggested.
The system was changed so that starting a fight and defending yourself are treated differently.
Then Embark went further.
Update 1.39.0 tested an even more aggressive change
On July 28, Update 1.39.0 introduced a test in which only PvP fights initiated by the player influence the playstyle estimate.
According to Embark, defending yourself would not affect the estimate during the test.
That includes knocking out enemies who attacked your squad first.
This is an important distinction.
Imagine another squad shoots at you first.
You fight back.
Under the tested system, that defensive response doesn't make you look like the player who initiated the encounter.
That's exactly the behaviour Embark says it wants to capture more accurately.
What counts as starting a fight?
Embark has provided some useful clarification.
If another squad damages, downs or knocks out one of your squadmates first, your squad is considered to be defending.
The squad that strikes first is considered to have started the fight.
But the system also considers the seriousness of the encounter.
A prolonged firefight involving significant damage and knockdowns carries more weight than an accidental hit or a very brief encounter where the other squad immediately leaves.
Third-partying an existing fight also counts as starting a fight.
That last point is particularly interesting.
You can't necessarily sit outside an ongoing fight, jump in at the perfect moment and expect the system to treat your involvement as passive.
Is there a "friendly lobby"?
Not really.
This is one of the most common oversimplifications.
Embark specifically says there are not only two kinds of lobbies.
The system operates along a scale, with players more likely to encounter others whose behaviour is similar to theirs.
That means "friendly lobby" isn't an official matchmaking category you can select.
You also aren't guaranteed a peaceful raid simply because you've behaved peacefully.
The unpredictability is part of the game's design.
Can peaceful players still be attacked?
Absolutely.
That's intentional.
ARC Raiders is built around uncertainty.
You don't know whether another Raider is going to help you, ignore you or shoot you.
Embark says the matchmaking system is designed to influence probabilities rather than remove that uncertainty.
The developer describes playstyle similarity as more likely, not guaranteed.
That distinction is crucial.
The matchmaking system isn't supposed to turn ARC Raiders into a PvE game.
It's intended to shape the kinds of encounters you're more likely to experience.
What about squads?
Embark has also clarified that squad members contribute to the squad's matchmaking profile.
Importantly, the squad leader doesn't receive special weighting compared with their teammates.
That means matchmaking isn't simply based on the behaviour of whoever happens to be leading the group.
The broader squad matters.
Does turning crossplay off make your lobby friendlier?
No.
Embark explicitly says changing crossplay affects the matchmaking pool — and therefore matchmaking time — but does not guarantee the tone of the encounters you will have.
So turning crossplay off shouldn't be treated as a secret method for finding more peaceful raids.
Why is Embark doing this?
The system is trying to preserve one of ARC Raiders' defining characteristics.
Uncertainty.
If every player knew that a certain matchmaking queue contained only friendly Raiders, much of the tension would disappear.
You would know exactly how other players were likely to behave.
Instead, Embark wants your previous behaviour to influence the probability without eliminating the possibility of surprise.
That creates a middle ground.
Your behaviour matters.
But the game remains unpredictable.
What should peaceful Raiders actually do?
If you prefer exploration, looting and cooperation, the biggest lesson is simple:
- Don't assume you are completely protected from PvP.
- Play cautiously.
- Listen for other players.
- Avoid unnecessary fights.
Understand that even a matchmaking system designed around playstyle similarity doesn't guarantee a peaceful extraction.
Likewise, PvP-focused players shouldn't assume that every encounter will automatically be against another aggressive squad.
The system is designed around probability, not certainty.
ARC Raiders matchmaking: The facts
- There are friendly and aggressive lobbies: Not exactly.
- Matchmaking considers player behaviour: Yes.
- One kill instantly makes you PvP-focused: No.
- Your behaviour can influence future lobbies: Yes, gradually.
- Defending yourself is treated like initiating PvP: Embark changed this.
- Defensive PvP affects the playstyle estimate in the 1.39.0 test: No.
- Third-partying a fight counts as starting PvP: Yes.
- Crossplay-off gives friendlier lobbies: No.
- Peaceful players are guaranteed peaceful raids: No.
The bigger picture
Embark's matchmaking system is an unusual solution to an unusually difficult problem.
ARC Raiders needs PvP to remain dangerous.
But the game also needs players to feel that cooperation, exploration and non-aggressive play are viable.
If the system works well, aggressive players should be more likely to find the kind of fights they enjoy, while peaceful players have a better chance of encountering Raiders interested in cooperation.
But neither group is guaranteed anything.
And that's probably the point.
The uncertainty is part of ARC Raiders.
The matchmaking system isn't designed to remove that uncertainty.
It's designed to subtly shape it.
For more on the update that arrives alongside these changes, read Can Frozen Trail Save ARC Raiders? Everything Is Riding on October 8.
Fact-check
Official source: Embark's matchmaking explanation confirms that playstyle similarity affects matchmaking probabilities rather than creating fixed friendly/aggressive lobby categories.
Official source: Embark confirmed that defending yourself is treated differently from initiating a fight.
Official source: Update 1.39.0 tested removing defensive PvP entirely from the playstyle estimate, including cases where players knocked out attackers.
Official source: Third-partying an existing fight counts as starting a fight, according to the 1.39.0 explanation.
Official source: Crossplay settings affect the matchmaking pool and matchmaking time but don't determine whether a lobby will be friendly or aggressive.
Important: The system should not be described as guaranteeing "friendly lobbies." Embark explicitly says similarity is more likely, not guaranteed.